Oscars 2023: This Year’s Predictions — Who Will and Should Win Across Major Categories

With the 95th Academy Awards only days away, the biggest mystery might be how many Oscars “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (EEAAO) will take home, after dominant hauls at both the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild awards. While several major categories appear locked, and in favor of the 11-time nominee “EEAAO,” there is, as always, the potential for an upset — particularly in the ‘Best Actor’ and ‘Best Supporting Actress’ races. 

At this point, it’s rote and redundant to point out that the Oscars don’t always get it right, and everyone has their favorite example of that. Sure, “Green Book” over “Roma” for ‘Best Picture’ in 2019… but what about Judy Holliday (“Born Yesterday”) winning ‘Best Actress’ in 1951 over two of the silver screen’s legendary — and most quotable —  villains: Gloria Swanson’s Norma Desmond (“Sunset Blvd.”) and Bette Davis’ Margo Channing (“All About Eve”)?

Who Will and Should Win

Two of the acting categories this year might offer the only real chance of surprise — but just to have some fun, I’m predicting both who will win and who should win (or, really, should have been nominated) in ten key categories. 

Some ground rules: no repeat films or artists among my picks, as much as I’d prefer to give individual shoutouts to all six donkeys who performed in “EO.” I’m also excluding films that I saw in 2022 which are not yet in theaters (but please, go see Kelly Reichardt’s “Showing Up” next month). The only certainty here is that I’ll be wrong at least once, and will continue to whine to anyone who will listen that some of my favorites won’t make it to a podium again this year. 

Best Picture

Will win: “EEAAO”
Should win: “EO”

Best Actress

Will win: Michelle Yeoh (“EEAAO”)
Should win: Vicky Krieps (“Corsage”)

Best Actor

Will win: Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
Should win: Jafar Panahi (“No Bears”)

Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Should win: Nicole Garcia (“One Fine Morning”)

Best Supporting Actor

Will win: Ke Huy Quan (“EEAAO”)
Should win: Brian d’Arcy James (“The Cathedral”)

Best Director

Will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“EEAAO”)
Should win: Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Best International Film

Will win: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Should win: “Saint Omer”

Best Original Screenplay

Will win: Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Should win: Joanna Hogg (“The Eternal Daughter”)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will win: Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”)
Should win: Noah Baumbach (“White Noise”)

Best Cinematography

Will win: James Friend (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)
Should win: Hoyte Van Hoytema (“Nope”)

The 95th Oscars take place on Sunday, March 12, 2023 from 8 – 11 PM, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel. Follow The Movie Buff for follow up articles, dissection, and more.